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Week of November 11, 2024 in Review

Annual inflation ticked higher in October while there were some important comments from the Fed about the economy and future rate cuts. Here are the latest headlines:

·         Consumer Inflation Moves Higher

·         Wholesale Inflation Hotter Than Expected

·         October Retail Sales Beat Estimates

·         Trends in Unemployment Claims Persist

Consumer Inflation Moves Higher

The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed that inflation rose 0.2% in October, with the annual reading coming in at 2.6%. While this was an uptick from the 2.4% 12-month rate seen in September, it was in line with what economists had forecasted.

The core measure, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.3% from September while the annual reading held steady at 3.3%. These figures also met expectations.

What's the bottom line?

The Fed began aggressively hiking their benchmark Fed Funds Rate (the overnight borrowing rate for banks) in March 2022 to try to slow the economy and curb the runaway inflation that became rampant after the pandemic. More recently, cooling consumer inflation and rising unemployment caused the Fed to start cutting the Fed Funds Rate, first by 50 basis points at their meeting in September. A 25-basis point cut followed on November 7.

And while we have seen significant progress since inflation peaked in 2022, when Headline CPI hit 9.1% and Core CPI hit 6.6%, we are seeing an acceleration in the recent rate of change. For example, if we annualize the last six months of readings, the year-over-year rate of inflation for Core CPI would be 2.5%, while annualizing the last three months gives us a rate of 3.5%.

In a speech last week, Fed Chair Jerome Powell noted that "the economy is not sending any signals that we need to be in a hurry to lower rates." He added that the Fed will "carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks" as members consider the timing for further rate cuts.

With the Fed's next meeting on December 18, key inflation reports to look for include the next Personal Consumption Expenditures (November 27) and Consumer Price Index (December 11). On the labor front, November's Jobs Report (December 6) will also be pivotal.

Wholesale Inflation Hotter Than Expected

The Producer Price Index (PPI), which measures inflation on the wholesale level, rose 0.2% in October, with the annual reading jumping from an upwardly revised 1.9% to 2.4%. This was hotter than the 2.3% that the market was anticipating. Core PPI, which strips out volatile food and energy prices, rose 0.3% for the month and the year-over-year reading moved higher to 3.1%.

What's the bottom line?

While the stalling progress on inflation has caused some fears that inflation is reemerging, we need to look at the numbers in context. October's 2.4% year-over-year PPI reading is well below the peak of 11.7% seen in 2022. Still, PPI data is important because some of the components are factored into another inflation measure called Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE). We will need to see if the hotter than expected PPI reading causes an upside surprise to PCE when it is reported later this month.

October Retail Sales Beat Estimates

Retail Sales rose 0.4% in October, above the 0.3% gain the market was expecting. The Core reading, which gets plugged into GDP, was weaker than estimates, though this miss was offset by a big revision higher to September's reading.

What's the bottom line?

Overall, the sales figures for October show that consumer spending remains resilient ahead of the all-important holiday shopping season. Plus, it's likely that Hurricanes Helene and Milton kept sales figures from being stronger last month.

Trends in Unemployment Claims Persist

The number of people filing for unemployment benefits for the first time fell by 4,000 in the latest week, as 217,000 Initial Jobless Claims were reported. Continuing Claims also dropped by 11,000, with 1.873 million people still receiving benefits after filing their initial claim.

What's the bottom line?

The low level of Initial Jobless Claims suggests that employers continue to hold on to their workers. Yet, Continuing Claims are still trending near some of the hottest levels we've seen in recent years, now topping 1.8 million for 23 consecutive weeks. Employers have clearly slowed down their pace of hiring as challenges remain for job seekers searching for their next position.

Family Hack of the Week

National Gingerbread Cookie Day is November 21, making it the perfect day to enjoy these soft and delicious cookies courtesy of Allrecipes. Yields 2 dozen cookies.

Preheat oven to 350 degrees Fahrenheit. Add 2 tablespoons sugar to a small bowl and set aside.

In a large bowl, sift 2 1/4 cups all-purpose flour, 2 teaspoons ground ginger, 1 teaspoon baking soda, 3/4 teaspoon ground cinnamon, 1/2 teaspoon cloves and 1/4 teaspoon salt. In a separate large bowl, beat 3/4 cup butter (softened) and 1 cup sugar with an electric mixer until light and fluffy. Beat in 1 egg, then stir in 1/4 cup molasses and 1 tablespoon water. Gradually stir the sifted ingredients into the molasses mixture until well combined.

Use floured hands to shape dough into 24 walnut-sized balls. Roll each ball into reserved sugar until coated. Place cookies 2 inches apart on ungreased cookie sheets. Flatten slightly with a glass.

Bake for 8 to 10 minutes, switching racks halfway through. Remove from oven and let cookies cool on the baking sheet for 5 minutes before transferring to a wire rack to cool completely.

What to Look for This Week

Important housing reports are ahead, starting Monday with homebuilder confidence for this month. October's Housing Starts and Building Permits follow Tuesday, while Thursday brings Existing Home Sales and the latest Jobless Claims.

SOURCE: MBS Highway Marketing Newsletter (11/11/2024).